Research on the Extraction of Elements of Complex Scenarios of Medical Surge and the Logical Deduction of Evolution

Yu Tian; Meng Nan; Gao Yiran; Wei Min; Wang Yanping; Jiang Lili; Zhang Xin; Ning Ning; Kang Zheng; Sergey Avdeev; Wu Qunhong

Abstract：Objective Exploring the components of complex scenarios of healthcare surges triggered by major epidemics to provide a theorical basis for building resilience in healthcare organizations.Methods A hybrid analysis method is used to summarize macro-meso-micro multi-level and multi-source heterogeneous information,extract the elements of complex scenarios of medical surge and evaluate the rationality.Fault Tree Analysis method is used to clarify the logical relationship between various scenario elements and construct scenario reasoning paths.Results 10 scenario states,11 disaster-bearing,24 emergency management and 23 scenario results are summarized and extracted to form the key elements of complex surge scenarios.Among them,M4 expansion and coordinated scheduling of key positions,B2 conventional drug inventory emergency/insufficient core treatment drugs,B emergency medical material transportation breakage,S3 disease symptom spectrum shift to severe disease,R13 prevention and control awareness laxity,and M5 media information dissemination management are the key driving factors that promote a major turning point in the scenario.The most positive scenario result is the orderly operation of the medical service system,and the most negative scenario result is the paralysis of the medical service system.Conclusion Medical institutions need to improve emergency plans based on the complex evolution scenarios of medical surges and agile governance capabilities targeting key turning points,focus on dynamically expanding and scheduling personnel in key positions,strengthen material rotation and reserve mechanisms,maintain smooth emergency logistics channels,and improve efficient management of media and public opinion,so as to comprehensively improve overall resilience.