Study on the Prediction of Total Health Expenditure in China Based on Elman Neural Network

Abstract：Objective Through the construction of the Elman neural network to forecast the total expenditure data on health,and to analyze the change trend of the total health expenditure in the economic and social new normal.Method Doing reference on health total expenditure analysis method before the new normal economy and sociey,summarizing that the Elman neural network was constructed to estimate the total health expenses,and the prediction results was good.Result Since entering the "new normal",China's total health expenditure and gross domestic product will increase year by year from 2016 to 2020.The total health expenditure will increase from 4 583.249 billion yuan in 2016to 60 295.96 billion yuan in 2020.The gross domestic product will rise from 72 094.57 billion yuan in 2016 to 81 027.47 billion yuan in 2020,and the proportion of total health expenditure relative to GDP will rise from 6.36％ in 2016 to 7.45％ in 2020.Conclusion The total health expenses in China since the new normal growth rate increases faster,and its growth rate is surprising compared with gross domestic product (GDP).The prediction model of Elman neural network based on the new normal of economic and social development has good prediction accuracy and strong applicability.