Trend analysis of gastric cancer incidence and mortality in Huai'an City,Jiangsu Province,from 2013 to 2021 and prediction
SHEN Huan
MIAO Dandan
SUN Zhongming
MEI Dongmeng
PAN Enchun
Abstract：Objective To analyze the trends of gastric cancer incidence and mortality in Huai'an City from 2013 to 2021 and predict their changes from 2022 to 2026,providing a theoretical basis for developing gastric cancer prevention and control strategies.Methods Data were obtained from the tumor registry data submitted by seven tumor registries in Huai'an City(2013-2021).Excel and SPSS 20.0 were used to calculate gastric cancer incidence(mortality)rates,age-standardized incidence(mortality)rates(China standard,ASIRC;World standard,ASIRW),truncated rates(35-64 years),and cumulative rates(0-74 years).JoinPoint 4.8.0.1 was employed to compute the average annual percentage change(AAPC).Excel 2013 was utilized to establish a GM(1,1)for predicting gastric cancer incidence and mortality from 2022 to 2026 in Huai'an City.Results From 2013 to 2021,the crude incidence rate of gastric cancer in Huai'an City was 32.97/100 000(ASIRC:18.48/100000;ASIRW:18.17/100 000),and the crude mortality rate was 24.66/100 000(ASMRC:13.16/100 000;ASMRW:12.72/100 000).Incidence remained low before age 45,rose rapidly thereafter,and peaked at 75-79 years.Mortality remained low before age 50,increased sharply with age,and peaked at 80-84 years.The AAPC for gastric cancer incidence in the total population,males,and rural areas of Huai'an City showed declining trends(-1.64％,-1.73％,and-1.66％,respectively;P＜0.05),while trends for females and urban areas were not statistically significant(AAPC:-1.39％and-1.63％,P＞0.05).After age standardization,ASIRC declined significantly in all subgroups(total population:-4.50％;males:-4.54％;females:-4.20％;urban:-4.18％;rural:-4.83％;P＜0.05).Rural mortality showed an upward trend(AAPC:1.34％,P＜0.05),while trends for the total population,males,females,and urban areas were non-significant(AAPC:0.53％,0.25％,0.35％,-0.24％;P＞0.05).After standardization,ASMRC declined significantly in the total population(-2.59％),males(-2.94％),urban(-2.75％),and rural areas(-2.42％,P＜0.05),but not in females(-2.63％,P＞0.05).GM(1,1)predictions indicated declining incidence and mortality from 2022 to 2026.Conclusions Gastric cancer incidence and ASIRC/ASMRC in Huai'an City are decreasing,with gender and urban-rural disparities in epidemiological patterns.Targeted prevention strategies for gastric cancers should be prioritized.
Keywords：Gastric cancerIncidenceMortalityTrend analysisPrediction
Publication Date：2025-10-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-11-06(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 435-441 )