Risk factors analysis for short-term recurrence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma surgery combined with preoperative neoadjuvant therapy
ZHANG Lingyan
WANG Fang
SHEN Guanhong
WANG Jie
DING Yanzhong
ZHANG Jing
Abstract：Objective To investigate the independent risk factors for short-term recurrence and construct a predictive model in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma(ESCC)undergoing radical surgery combined with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.Methods A cohort of 110 ESCC patients who underwentneoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by radical surgery at the 904th Hospital of People's Liberation Army Joint Logistics Support Force between January 2022 and December 2023 was enrolled.Categorical variables were analyzed using the χ2 test to screen factors associated with postoperative short-term recurrence.Independent risk factors were identified via multivariate logistic regression analysis.A nomogram prediction model was developed using R software,and model efficacy was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results The 1-year recurrence rate was 18.2%(20/110).Factors significantly correlated with short-term recurrence included age,ypT stage,ypN stage,neoadjuvant treatment regimen,microvascular invasion,lymphatic invasion,preoperative hypoalbuminemia,abnormal platelet count,abnormal prognostic nutritional index(PNI),and abnormal systemic immune-inflammation index(SII)(P<0.05).Independent risk factors comprised age≥65 years,preoperative hypoalbuminemia,neoadjuvant treatment regimen,high pathological stage,absence of tumor volume reduction,and postoperative abnormal platelet count.The nomogram prediction model,based on these six indicators,achieved an area under the ROC curve(AUC)of 0.823(95%CI:0.751-0.894).Conclusions This model enables preoperative risk quantification and postoperative dynamic monitoring of high-risk indicators.Enhanced follow-up protocols are recommended for ESCC patients with age≥65 years,preoperative hypoalbuminemia,high pathological stage,absence of tumor volume reduction,or postoperative abnormal platelet count to provide evidence-based support for early intervention.
Keywords：Esophageal squamous cell carcinomaNeoadjuvant therapyShort-term recurrenceRisk factors
Publication Date：2025-08-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-09-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 378-383 )