Development of prediction model of kinesiophobia in elderly patients in medical and elderly care integrated hospital and its verification

CHEN Lian; CHEN Xin

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-3768.2025.02.001

Abstract：Objective To understand the current situation of kinesiophobia of elderly patients in medical and elderly care integrated hospitals and analyze its influencing factors,so as to build a nomogram prediction model.Methods A total of 283 elderly inpatients in Didongkou branch of the eighth people's hospital of Nanning from January 2023 to April 2024 were selected by using convenience sampling.According to the enrollment time,the first 70％patients were set as the modeling group(n=198),while the rest 30％were chosen into the verification group(n=85).Logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of kinesiophobia.According to the influencing factors,a nomogram prediction model was constructed,the predictive performance of prediction model was tested using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results The incidence of exercise fear was 53.36％among the elderly patients.Age,number of chronic diseases,BMI,frequency of family visits,depression,activities of daily living,presence or absence of visual impairment,limb pain,frailty were included in the prediction model.In the modeling group,the area under the ROC curve was 0.976,the sensitivity was 0.933,the specificity was 0.903.In the verification group,the area under the ROC curve was 0.976,the sensitivity was 0.948,the specificity was 0.903.Moreover,the Hosmer-Lemeshow test results of both groups were more than 0.05.Conclusion The incidence of kinesiophobia is high among elderly patients in medical and elderly care integrated hospitals.The nomogram prediction model constructed in this study is of good differentiation and calibration with high net yield.Therefore,it is of good prediction efficiency and clinical applicability.