A predictive model for recurrence risk after radiofrequency catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation
Zhou Zhongyun
Ma Wenlu
Cui Wenzhu
Wang Jinghua
Sun Cong
Wang Ping
Abstract：Objective To establish a nomogram model through analyzing relative risk factors for recurrence of atrial fibrillation(AF)after radiofrequency catheter ablation(RFCA),and to be convenient for clinicians to manage patients with high AF recurrence risk in a personalized way.Methods The patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation(PAF,n=275)received first RFCA were chosen from Department of Cardiovascular Medicine in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from Jan.2018 to May 2022.The clinical materials were collected from patients during hospitalization time,and all patients were followed up for 12 months.According to follow-up results,the patients were divided into recurrence group(n=68)and non-recurrence group(n=207).The risk factors were given single-factor and multi-factor analyses by using SPSS Statistic 27.0 software in 2 groups.According to above analysis results,a nomogram model was established by using R software.The performance of nomogram model and CHA2DS2-VaSc scoring model were verified by using ROC curve analysis.The nomogram model was reviewed by using calibration curve and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results There were 68 patients with AF recurrence.The results of single-factor and multi-factor analyses showed that body mass index(BMI),obstructive sleep apnea syndrome(OSAS),old myocardial infarction(OMI),left atrial diameter(LAD),left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF)and alone circumferential pulmonary vein isolation(CPVI)were independent risk factors for AF recurrence after RFCA.The results of ROC curve analysis showed that AUC of nomogram model was 0.94(95％CI:0.91～0.97),and AUC of CHA2DS2-VaSc scoring model was 0.82(95％CI:0.77～0.88).The performance of calibration curve had a higher consistency.The results of DCA analysis showed that the nomogram model had a higher positive yield in reviewing AF recurrence after RFCA.Conclusion BMI,OSAS,OMI,LAD,LVEF and alone CPVI are independent risk factors for AF recurrence after RFCA.The nomogram model established based on above risk factors has higher predictive efficacy and feasibility,which can be taken as a tool for guiding review of AF recurrence risk after RFCA.
Keywords：Atrial fibrillationRadiofrequency catheter ablationRecurrencePredictive model
Publication Date：2024-11-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 1309-1313 )