Construction of predictive model for long-term prognosis based on echocardiogram and clinical texts in elderly patients with coronary intermediate lesion of stable coronary heart disease
Wang Daijiao
Song Hongning
Chen Jinling
Abstract：Objective To investigate the construction of predictive model for long-term risk of major adverse cardiovascular events(MACEs)based on echocardiogram and data of clinical electronic medical record(EMR)in elderly patients with coronary intermediate lesion of stable coronary heart disease(CHD).Methods The elderly patients with coronary intermediate lesion of CHD were chosen from Department of Cardiology in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from Jan.2018 to Dec.2020.The characteristic variables were screened and a nomogram was constructed by using LASSO regression and multi-factor Cox regression analyses.The performanceof the predictive model was assessed by using analyses of area under curve(AUC),calibration curve and decision curve.Results There were totally 345 cases included,and they were randomly divided,in a ratio of 7:3,into training group(n=241)and validation group(n=104).There was a significant correlation among diabetes,previous myocardial infarction,lipoprotein(a)[LP(a)],left ventricular posterior wall thickness at end diastole(LVPWTD)and MACEs,and a nomogram was constructed based on above 4 indexes.In predicting MACEs occurrence in training group,AUC was 0.717(95％CI:0.622～0.812)after discharged for 2 y,and AUC was 0.72(95％CI:0.638～0.802)after discharged for 3 y.In predicting MACEs occurrence in validation group,AUC was 0.668(95％CI:0.527～0.809)after discharged for 2 y,and AUC was 0.691(95％CI:0.552～0.83)after discharged for 3 y.The performance of calibration curve showed a good consistency of predictive model in 2 groups.The performance of decision curveshowed a positive yield of predictive model in 2 groups.Conclusion The nomogram constructed based on diabetes,previous myocardial infarction,LP(a)and LVPWTD can effectively predict MACEs risk in elderly CHD patients with coronary intermediate lesion after discharged for 2 y and 3 y.
Keywords：Stable coronary heart diseaseCoronary intermediate lesionEchocardiogram
Publication Date：2024-09-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 1034-1038 )