Establishmentand verificationof clinical diagnosis model in patients with hypertension complicated by atrial fibrillation

Xue Wenjing; Wei Yi; Hu Yuanhui

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-4055.2024.05.18

Abstract：Objective To analyze the factors affecting atrial fibrillation(AF)in patients with hypertension,establish nomogram model,and analyze the accuracy and clinical efficacy of the model.Methods The clinical materials of hypertensive patients(n=748)were analyzed in Guang`anmen Hospital from Jan.2018 to Apr.2021.The patients were divided,according to AF occurrence,into AF group(n=165)and non-AF group(n=619).The influence factors of AF were analyzed by using Logistic regression analysis.A nomogrammodel was established and verified internally for reviewing accuracy by using Bootstrap method.Results The results of multi-factor Logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.040,95%CI:1.016～1.064,P<0.05),female(OR=1.720,95%CI:1.066～2.777,P<0.05),triglyceride(OR=0.717,95%CI:0.517～0.996,P<0.05),cholesterol(OR=2.387,95%CI:1.105～5.159,P<0.05),left ventricular diastolic dysfunction(OR=0.121,95%CI:0.073～0.201,P<0.001)left atrial diameter(OR=1.110,95%CI:1.072～1.149,P<0.001),β-receptor blocker administration(OR=1.881,95%CI:1.177～3.007,P<0.05)and serum cholinesterase content(OR=0.723,95%CI:0.639～0.819,P<0.001)were independent risk factors of AF occurrence in hypertensive patients.The results of nomogrammodel analysis showed that the nomogrammodel based on clinical data had a stronger capability in predicting AF occurrence in hypertensive patients.Bootstrapvalidation confirmed that the model's calibration curve closely aligned with ideal curve.Conclusion The risk predictive model based on common clinical data can precisely estimate AF risk in hypertensive patients,which is beneficial for clinicians in assessing patient's conditions and implementingtimely and effective interventions.