Study on the relationship between red blood cell count,serum uric acid and severity of coronary calcification in middle-aged and elderly people and establishing prediction model

Han Liming; Gao Jingyuan; Yan Han; Xing Lei; Sun Yao

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-4055.2023.10.11

Abstract：Objective To explore the correlation between human red blood cell count,blood uric acid and the severity of coronary artery calcification in middle-aged and elderly people,and to estimate the severity of coronary artery calcification by fitting regression equation.Methods The clinical data of 134 patients with coronary artery calcification score(CACS)>0 and age≥45 years old who underwent coronary artery computed tomography angiography(CTA)in the Department of General Medicine of the Affiliated Hospital of North China University of Technology from April 2019 to May 2021 were selected,and the patients were divided into mild calcification group and severe calcification group,The factors related to the severity of coronary artery calcification were analyzed by single factor analysis and binary logistic regression,and the regression model was established,the ROC curve was drawn,the optimal critical value of the prediction model was determined,and the simplified model was established.Results Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.047,95%CI:1.04～1.093,P=0.034),red blood cell count(OR=2.286,95%CI:1.129～4.628,P=0.022),triglyceride(TG,OR=1.801,95%CI:1.173～2.765,P=0.007),serum uric acid(UA,OR=1.08,95%CI:1.03～1.012,P=0.001),the history of hypertension(OR=8.535,95%CI:3.436～21.197,P<0.001),the history of diabetes(OR=19.145,95%CI:6.588～55.638,P<0.001)were risk factors for the severity of coronary artery calcification.The multivariate logistic regression analysis screened out four factors for regression model fitting:red blood cell count(OR=4.058,95%CI:1.233～13.356,P=0.021),SUA(OR=1.010,95%CI:1.002～1.018,P=0.010),the history of hypertension(OR=30.305,95%CI:4.793～191.623,P<0.001),the history of diabetes(OR=131.068,95%CI:19.364～887.177,P<0.001),and the cut-off value score of ROC curve was 5 points;In severe coronary artery calcification group,the sum of two or more positive indicators≥5 points,in mild coronary artery calcification group,one variable of diabetes=5 points,and the sum of other two or more variables<5 points.After model simplification,ROC curve test was performed,AUC=0.942(P<0.001).Conclusion Hypertension history,diabetes history,red blood cell count,and blood uric acid are independent risk factors for the severity of coronary artery calcification.The above four factors fitting regression equation can predict the severity of coronary artery calcification effectively.