Study on the Characteristics and Trend of Changes in Hospitalization Cost Structure for the Elderly Chronic Disease Patients in Guangdong Province

Wang Yufan; Xiang Guochun; Wang Dong

Abstract：Objective:To analyze the internal composition and changes in hospitalization costs for the elderly patients with noncommunicable chronic diseases(reffed as chronic disease)in Guangdong,and to predict the trend of these costs.Methods:The hospitalization data of elderly patients with chronic diseases in Guangdong from 2019 to 2023 were collected.Structural variation analysis and grey correlation analysis were employed to study the proportion,variation,and correlation degree of various components of hospitalization expenses.A Grey GM(1,1)model was constructed to predict the average hospitalization expenses per case.Results:From 2019 to 2023,the average cost per hospitalization for the elderly patients with chronic diseases in Guangdong showed a declining trend.The largest component of hospitalization costs was medical service fees.The most significant negative structural change was ob-served in drug revenue,while the most significant positive change was shown in examination and laboratory test fees.Medical service fees,total medical insurance payments,and out-of-pocket payments exhibited a high degree of association with total hospitalization costs.The GM(1,1)model predicted that the average cost per hospitalization for elderly patients with chronic diseases would continue to decline from 2024 to 2030.Conclusion:From 2019 to 2023,the average hospitalization expenses per case for elderly patients with chronic diseases in Guangdong Province decreased steadily,and the expense structure tended to be optimized.It is essential to sustain cost-containment measures for chronic conditions among the elderly to maintain a reasonable and gradual reduction in hospitalization ex-penses.Efforts should also focus on further refining the cost composition of chronic disease hospitalizations and enhancing oversight of key cost components.