Analysis on the Impact of China's National Fitness Policy Evolution on the Burden of Brain-Related Diseases

Luo Lin

Abstract：Objective:To examine long-term trends in the disease burden of five major brain-related diseases(stroke,mental disorders,neurological diseases,brain cancer,and encephalitis)in China in the context of the implementation of the National Fitness Policy,and to assess the association between the China's National Fitness Policy and changes in the burden of brain-related diseases.Methods:Global Burden of Disease data for China from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed,with 1995,2009,and 2014 identified as key policy intervention points.Segmented regression time series models were applied,incorporating counterfactual analysis and sensitivity testing to examine changes in age-standardized mortality rates,incidence rates,and disability-adjusted life year rates before and after policy implementation.Results:The overall burden of the targeted brain conditions showed a sustained decline.Marked reductions were observed in the burden of stroke and encephalitis,while improvements in mental disorders and other neurological conditions were relatively limited.The policy's influence was primarily reflected in persistent improvements over time,with the 2009-2014 period emerging as a pivotal window,suggesting a synergistic effect between the China's National Fitness Policy and concurrent institutional reforms such as healthcare reform.Conclusion:The temporal alignment between the National Fitness Policy and declining burdens of brain related diseases disorders suggests a potential policy effect,while not establishing a definitive causal link.Future research should incorporate attributable burden models and longitudinal individual-level data to further elucidate mechanisms of policy impact,including exploration of policy interactions and population-level heterogeneity in health responses.These efforts will provide robust empirical support for evidence-based policymaking and the construction of the Healthy China.