An Empirical Analysis on the Impact of China's Basic Medical Insurance System on the Equity of Health Based on BP Neural Network and ITSA
Zhang Cheng
Lin Yanming
Yang Yuehan
Hou Lisha
Huang Ju
Abstract：Objective:To analyze the impact of the universal coverage,integration and DRG/DIP payment method reform of Basic Medical Insurance(BMI)on the equity of the health service utilization and resource allocation.Methods:The 1998-2022 panel data on health service utilization and resources were collected for China.Health equity is measured using the Concentration Index(CI)and Theil index,and the impact of BMI reform on health equity is analyzed by BP neural network and ITSA.Results:Universal coverage,integration,and DRG/DIP payment reform of BMI had a positive effect on the number of health workers,beds,and admissions(P＜0.001),and inhibited the growth of per capita hospitalization costs(P＜0.05).The CI for the number of health workers and beds declined by 0.004 and 0.003 per year after universal coverage of BMI;and both still declined by 0.002 per year with a 5-year lag(P＜0.05).The CI for the hospital admissions fell by 0.014 immediately after the DRG/DIP payment reform and by 0.012 per year thereafter(P＜0.001).Conclusion:BMI reforms not only can contribute to improve the health service utilization and resources,but also it can also improve health equity.In addition,it has a lagged effect on improving health equity.
Keywords：basic medical insuranceequityhealth service utilizationhealth resources allocationBP neural networksinterrupted time series
Publication Date：2025-10-05
Online Publishing Date：2025-11-06(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 11-15 )