Debt Risk Assessment of Shenzhen Public Hospitals Based on Factor Analysis

Li Yanna; Ke Xiatong; Lai Songsheng; Bai Xingchi; Du Fang; Wu Liqun

Abstract：Objective:In recent years,the economic operating risks of public hospitals are gradually increased.Conducting a scientific assessment of hospital debt risk is crucial to preventing hospitals from falling into financial distress.It aims to evaluate the debt risk of public hospitals in Shenzhen,with a particular focus on the impact of special bonds on debt risk.Methods:Based on the 2022-2023 financial reports and data on special bondsof public hospitals in Shenzhen,factor analysis was employed to assess the debt risk of public hospitals with and without special bonds.Results:Tertiary hospitals,municipal hospitals,specialized hospitals,and general hospitals generally exhibited lower debt risk.Factors related to debt risk primarily included cash flow variables such as medical service income,net assets,and debt repayment capacity indicators,including current ratio and cash ratio.When considering the impact of special bonds,the weight of cash flow indicators and long-term debt repayment capacity indicators increased.Debt risk for municipal hospitals shifted towards higher-risk levels,while district-level hospitals saw a shift towards lower-risk levels,particularly for district-level traditional Chinese medicine hospitals.Conclusion:The debt risk of public hospitals in Shenzhen is significantly influenced by special bonds.It is recommended to strengthen the management of special bond funds,optimize hospital cash flow,and improve debt repayment capacity to reduce debt risk.