Research on the Spatio-temporal Evolution and Trend Prediction of the Coupling and Coordinated Development of Medical Resource Allocation and Economic Society

Li Liqing; Yang Sule; Chen Zhensheng

Abstract：Objective:To explore the temporal characteristics,spatial effects,spatial correlation patterns and dynamic evolution laws of the coordinated development of medical resource allocation and economic society in China from 2010 to 2021,and to provide scientific references for promoting the coordinated and orderly development of medical and health services and economic society.Methods:The coupling coordination theory is introduced to construct a"time+space"dual-dimensional dynamic coupling coordination degree model,and the spatial correlation analysis method is used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of China's medical resource allocation and economic and social coupling coordination level from 2010 to 2021.On this basis,the grey prediction model is used to dynamically predict the future development and changes of the coupling coordination level of 31 provinces from 2024 to 2028.Results:From 2010 to 2021,the level of coupling and coordination between medical resource allocation and economic and social development has been steadily increased,but the overall coordination level is low,the regional gap is large,and the benign resonance coupling and coordinated and orderly development have not been fully realized;there is a significant spatial positive correlation and spatial agglomeration effect between the allocation of medical resources and the level of economic and social coupling and coordination,mainly based on the spatial correlation mode of high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration.From 2024 to 2028,the gap of interregional coupling coordination level will be narrowed,and the western region will still be in the stage of imbalance.Conclusion:We should focus on regional geospatial differences,improve the cross-regional multilateral coordinated development mechanism,promote mutual assistance and sharing of medical resources,technology,capital and management experience,establish and improve the investment mechanism suitable for the level of economic and social development,and promote the coordinated and orderly development of medical and health undertakings and economic society.