Analysis on Medical Service Carrying Capacity of Township Health Centers under Hierarchical Diagnosis System

doi:10.7664/CHE20180417

Abstract：Objective:To analyze the distribution(allocation) of resources and service situation of township health centers since 2007,forecast the situation in the next few years,in order to analyze the medical service carrying capacity of township health centers under the hierarchical diagnosissystem,so as to provide references for promoting the hierarchical diagnosissystem.Methods:Using of China's health and family planning development statistics bulletin 2007-2016 data,using descriptive analysis method to describe the health resources and health service status in recent years.The time series model was constructed by exponential smoothing method to predict 2017-2020 data.Results:From the perspective of resource allocation,the township hospitals had achieved the goal of holding 1.2 beds per thousand population by 2012,but the number of township health centers per thousand rural population began to decline greatly from 2015,and the number of personnel in basic medical and health institutions per thousand resident population was 3.5 people,the goal was more than 2 people,and the gap was still large.According to the forecast of 2017-2020,the index will increase slightly in the next few years.To the medical service,the proportion of diagnosis and treatment visits of health clinics in China decreased year by year since 2010.To predict the number of diagnosis and treatment in township hospitals in 2017-2020,the predicted values were 12.87％,12.21％,11.59％ and 11％ respectively;The proportion of the number of hospital admissions in township hospitals has been decreasing year by year,and the decrease is obvious.To predict the hospital admission in 2017-2020,and the predictive values were 16.22％,15.82％,15.59％ and 15.57％ respectively.Conclusion:Township hospitals' human resources were insucient,and the medical services were shrinking,this caused the inability to bear the responsibility entrusted by hierarchical diagnosis.Solving the shortage of human resources and improving the service ability of the hospital were important links to promote the hierarchical diagnosissystem.