DOI: 10.7664/CHE20180309
Study on Risk Prediction and Evaluation of Basic Medical Insurance Fund for Urban Employees in Shandong Based on Grey Markov Model
Abstract：Objective:From 1995 to 2015,the time series of funds and payments of basic medical insurance fund for urban employees in China was predicted from 2016 to 2025,and the basic development trend was compared.Methods:Verhulst model was applied to establish matching model.The result of matching and Markov model were used to construct the prediction on 2016 to 2025relative residual state and modify the time series prediction results.Results:The fund financing and expenditure time series after the adjustment of gross domestic production from 2002 to 2015 were matched with grey Verhulst model,which were typical gross function model.The relative error of the fitting of these two values were 2.79％and 2.41％.The fitting effect was well.Based on the modified Markov model,the relative errors of fund financing and expenditure released by 0.77％ and 0.73％.The prediction accuracy was highly promoted.It predicted the fund financing and expenditure of Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance(UEBMI) were 74.873 billion yuan and 82.734 billion yuan.Conclusion:There would be no overruns during 2016 to 2025 with the cumulative balance over years if the current financing payment policy of UEBMI remained unchanged.
Keywords：fund balance of paymentUrban Employee Basic Medical Insurancegrey modelMarkov modelprediction
Publication Date：2018-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 31-34 )