DOI: 10.7664/CHE20180114
Prediction of Income and Expenditure Balance of Basic Medical Insurance Fund for Urban Employees in China Based on Time Series Markov Model
Abstract：Objective:To predict the balance of payments in the next 10 years by using the time series of the total income and expenditure of the basic medical insurance fund for urban employees from 1995 to 2015.Methods:A fitting model of construction fund total amount paid by the ARIMA model,to correct the fitted value of constructing two models based on Markov model,so as to improve the prediction accuracy.Results:The average relative error of the primary income model was 5.81％,and the quadratic model was 2.01％.The average relative error of the fund expenditure model was 9.14％,and the quadratic model was 5.35％.Conclusion:From the national situation,the basic medical insurance policy for urban employees remains unchanged,and there will be no annual overruns from 2016 to 2025.It suggested that the medical insurance administration department should enhanee the top-layer design,integrate the pooling fund and individual account fund,improve the overall polling hierarchy and strengthen the medical insurance fund's capacity to resist the risks.
Keywords：basic medical insurance for urban employeestime seriesfund balance of paymentsMarkov modelprediction
Publication Date：2018-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：3( 54-56 )