Predicting the Development Trend of Health Expenditure Based on Methods of System Dynamics Simulation

LIU Qiao-yan; LI Li-qing; LU Zu-xun

doi:10.7664/CHE20170716

Abstract：Objective:To explore the usage of system dynamics analyzing the influencing factors of total health expenditure(THE),forecast the trends of total health expenditure based on the method of System Dynamics and put forward relative countermeasures.Methods:According to the literature and expert consultation,the population,elderly,GDP,government health expenditures,drug costs and the number of health workers per thousand population were the important factors for THE.These factors were incorporated into system dynamics model for total health expenditure and conducted the simulation.Results:Based on the examination,the simulation results highly corresponded to historical data (2002-2014) and the official forecast (2015-2020),which showed that the model had good stability and reliability.The simulation results showed that steadily increasing total health expenditure would reach 7 457.12 billion yuan in 2025.Conclusion:The system dynamics approach had superior characteristics to other projection methods in terms of stability and reliability.In order to control the irrational growth of total health expenditure,it needed to increase the prevention investment,decrease the incidence of chronic diseases;sustainably improve the reform of public hospitals,implement the basic drug system;change the income-oriented performance appraisal to realize the labor value of medical staffs.