DOI: 10.7664/CHE20170706
Study on the Balance of Social Medical Insurance Fund and Risk Assessment
Abstract：Objective:To analyze the changes of the balance of payments in China's social medical insurance fund,and evaluate the time and extent of the risk of the occurrence of the risk.Methods:According to the income,expenditure and annual balance of the social medical insurance fund from 1995 to 2015,the time series model was used to forecast the balance of income and expenditure till the year of 2030.Results:The ratio of expenditure and income of social medical insurance funds increased from 75.35％ in 1995 to about 87.96％ in 1998,decreased to 63.63％ in the year of 2001,and then gradually increased,reaching to the level of 83.19％ in 2015.According to the forecast,the total fund revenue in 2021 would be 2 007 510 million yuan,the expense would be 2 025 640 million yuan,the annual fund expenditure would be larger than the annual fund incomne.Conclusion:With the background of increasing ageing trend in China,the medical expense increased rapidly,the revenue balance pressure of insurance fund increased by years.It would have the risk of fund income over expenditure overruns in 2021 according to the forecast.
Keywords：risk assessmentmedical insurance fundtime seriesforecast
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：3( 25-27 )