DOI: 10.7664/CHE20140510
Rapid Calculation Approach of Total Health Expenditure Based on Improving GM(1.1) Model
Abstract：Objective: To propose the improved GM(1,1)(Grey Model, 1st grey theoretical differential equation model) method to quickly predict long-short term total health expenditure(THE) in China, effectively shorten prediction time and improve the reliability of prediction. Methods: According to the changes of average underlying annual growth rate of historical THE, some aberrant points for years were calculated with GM(1,1) method. THE was predicted by linear regression model between two continuous aberrant years. Results: Compared with average annual growth rate, ARIMA model and quick calculation method, the result of prediction was more accurate and convenient . Conclusion: The prediction method for THE based on improved GM ( 1 . 1 ) model is rapid , effective and feasible.
Keywords：total health expenditurepredictionaverage annual growth rateGrey Model(11)linear regression
Publication Date：2014-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：3( 35-37 )