Development of a nomogram model based on serological inflammatory markers for predicting prognosis in patients with ischemic stroke
Wu Liping
Xu Jinjuan
Dong Guoli
Abstract：Objective To investigate the relationship between platelet to lymphocyte ratio(PLR),neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio(NLR),interleukin-5(IL-5),interleukin-6(IL-6),interleukin-1β(IL-1β),interleukin-8(IL-8),and prognosis in patients with ischemic stroke,and to establish a nomogram model for predicting the prognosis of ischemic stroke.Methods The clinical data of 320 patients with ischemic stroke were analyzed retrospectively.The modified Rankin Scale(mRS)was used to evaluate the prognosis,and the patients were divided into a good prognosis group(mRS 0-2,n=280)and a poor prognosis group(mRS 3-5,n=40).Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors,and a nomogram model was established.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to analyze the predictive value of the model.Results Compared with the poor prognosis group,the time from onset to treatment,National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale(NIHSS)score≥5,PLR,NLR,uric acid,IL-5,IL-6,IL-1β,and IL-8 levels were significantly different from the good prognosis group(all P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis revealed that time from onset to treatment was prolonged,NIHSS score≥5,elevated PLR,NLR,uric acid,IL-5,IL-6,IL-1β,and IL-8 were risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with ischemic stroke(P<0.05).The nomogram model showed that IL-6 was the strongest predictor of poor prognosis in stroke patients,followed by IL-1β,NLR,IL-8,IL-5,PLR,time from onset to treatment,uric acid,and NIHSS score≥5.The Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)test indicated no significant difference between the predicted and observed values of the nomogram model,demonstrating good predictive performance(χ2=1.43,P=0.754).The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of the nomogram model for predicting poor prognosis in stroke patients was 0.786(95%CI:0.683-0.862),with a sensitivity of 0.816,a specificity of 0.797,and a Youden index of 0.653,indicating moderate discrimination and good predictive performance.Conclusions The nomogram model based on these serological inflammatory markers can accurately predict the risk of poor prognosis in patients with ischemic stroke.
Keywords：strokeinterleukinsnomogram model
Publication Date：2024-08-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 479-484 )