Prognostic performance evaluation of a nomogram model for predicting postoperative survival in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma
HAN Zhi-qiang
YIN Yi-qing
WANG Kai-yuan
SONG Tian-qiang
HUANG Ji-wei
CHEN Lu
Abstract：Objective To explore the independent risk factors after radical resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC)and construct a survival prognostic nomogram based on multicenter clinical data.Methods Data of 332 patients who underwent radical resection for ICC at Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute & Hospital and Sichuan University West China Hospital between January 2011 and June 2018 were collected.Patients were divided into modeling and validation cohorts based on the institution,with 131 in the modeling cohort and 201 in the validation cohort.COX regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of ICC patients and to construct the nomogram.The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the concordance index,ROC curve,and calibration curve.Results Multivariate COX regression analysis indicated that CA19-9,tumor diameter,vascular invasion,differentiation,and TNM stage are independent risk factors influencing prognosis after radical resection for ICC(all P＜0.05).A nomogram was constructed based on these five factors,showing a C-index of 0.807 and AUC of 0.786 in the training cohort,and a C-index of 0.818 and AUC of 0.857 in the validation cohort.Conclusion The predictive model based on CA19-9,tumor diameter,vascular invasion,differentiation,and TNM stage demonstrates good prognostic prediction accuracy,providing a reference for individualized treatment in clinical practice.
Keywords：intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomasurvival predictionnomogramprediction model
Publication Date：2025-03-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 322-328,339 )