Construction and evaluation of a nomogram risk prediction model for postoperative nausea and vomiting after intracranial tumor surgery
SHU Yiping
XIANG Yanyan
WANG Tianshu
HONG Wenming
XIE Yuhuan
Abstract：Objective To construct a nomogram risk prediction model for postoperative nausea and vomiting(PONV)after intracranial tumor surgery and evaluate its predictive efficiency,discrimination,calibration,and clinical appli-cability.Methods The clinical data of 400 patients with intracranial tumors who underwent craniotomy at the First Affil-iated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2021 to October 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.PONV was diagnosed within 24 hours postoperatively based on patient complaints and clinical manifestations.Multivariate logistic re-gression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of PONV.The R software was used to construct the nomogram prediction model and perform internal validation and evaluation.Results Among the 400 patients with intracranial tumors,141 developed PONV,with an incidence rate of 35.25%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that female gender,history of motion sickness,history of preoperative nausea and vomiting,infratentorial tumor,operation time≥4 h,and tumor nature were independent predictors of PONV in patients with intracranial tumors(P<0.05).A nomogram prediction model was successfully constructed based on these six factors.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed no statistical-ly significant deviation between the predicted probability and the actual occurrence frequency(χ²=10.790,P=0.148).Dis-crimination analysis using the ROC curve showed an area under the curve of 0.783(95%CI:0.735-0.831),indicating good discrimination of the nomogram.Decision curve analysis demonstrated good clinical applicability of the nomogram mod-el.Conclusion The incidence of PONV is relatively high in patients undergoing intracranial tumor surgery.The nomogram prediction model for PONV risk,constructed based on the six factors of female gender,history of motion sickness,history of preoperative nausea and vomiting,infratentorial tumor,operation time≥4 h,and tumor nature,has good calibration and dis-crimination,and certain clinical applicability.
Keywords：intracranial tumorspostoperative nausea and vomitingrisk factorsrisk predictionnomogram model
Publication Date：2025-10-25
Online Publishing Date：2026-01-07(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 601-606 )