Sampled Blind Number Based Forecasting of Coal and Gas Outburst with Uncertainties
WANG Xiao-lu
LIU Jian
LU Jian-lun
Abstract：In order to evaluate the influence of the uncertainties on the forecasting results of coal and gas outburst,a novel estimation approach based on sampled-blind-number(SBN)was proposed.An uncertain variable was divided into several segments within its confidence interval.The uncertain behavior of an element in one segment was described by the averaged value and probability within the segment,which formed a sample of the element.The SBN of an element consists of the set of all samples of the element.Various combinations of the corresponding element samples were used as the input of the coal and gas outburst forecaster,respectively,and the SBN describing the uncertainty of the forecasting result was worked out.The probability distribution and the confidence interval of the forecasting results can also be obtained.The results show that the proposed approach is feasible.Not only the uncertainties with arbitrary probability distribution can be dealt with,the amount of calculation is also reduced due to the convolution operation being avoided.The probability of each level of the coal and gas outburst can be evaluated.The forecasting probabilities of the three testing situations with the coal and gas outburst levels of A,D and A are 0.904 5,0.777 5 and 0.989 3,respectively,which are in positive with the actual conditions.
Keywords：coal and gas outburstuncertaintysampled-blind-numberprobability distributionconfidence intervalforecasting
Publication Date：2010-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 227-232 )