Analysis of risk factors for myocardial injury caused by mushroom poisoning and the construction and verification of prediction model

Hu Conglong; Fu Zehui; Yin Liyi; Liu Yiqun; Cao Yan; Han Xiaotong

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1949.2024.07.005

Abstract：Objective To retrospectively analyze the risk factors for myocardial injury in mushroom poisoning patients and construct and validate a prediction model.Methods A total of 211 mushroom poisoning patients admitted to Hunan Provincial People's Hospital and Pingnan County People's Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from July 2012 to September 2023 were divided into two groups according to whether they had myocardial injury after poisoning.The general information,myocardial enzyme spectrum,electrocardiogram of the poisoning patients in the two groups were compared.The risk factors for myocardial injury in mushroom poisoning patients were analyzed by univariate and multivariate regression analysis,and a prediction model of risk factor was constructed and validated based on the results.Results Univariate analysis showed that the levels of lactate dehydrogenase,creatine kinase,creatine kinase isoenzyme,myoglobin,cardiac troponin Ⅰ and electrocardiogram abnormalities were higher in the myocardial injury group than in the non-myocardial injury group(P＜0.05),while the levels of hemoglobin and blood calcium were lower in the myocardial injury group with statistically significant differences(P＜0.05).Multivariate regression analysis combined with receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve showed that elevated myoglobin and cardiac troponin Ⅰ levels,low blood calcium levels,and electrocardiogram abnormalities were independent risk factors for myocardial injury induced by mushroom poisoning.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model had good internal consistency and high goodness of fit(P＞0.05).Conclusions Myoglobin,cardiac troponin Ⅰ,blood calcium and electrocardiogram are important predictors of myocardial injury caused by mushroom poisoning.In clinical practice,it is important to identify high-risk factors,monitor relevant indicators,and take timely interventional treatment to promote patients'recovery.