A nomogram study based on blood urea nitrogen and albumin to predict the risk of adverse prognosis in the patients with acute decompensated heart failure
Zhao Qiuyi
Wang Tong
Wang Fengyun
Zhu Yinchuan
Su Dongsheng
Zhang Qianqian
Tang Jianmin
Abstract：Objective To develop and validate a column chart for predicting adverse prognosis in the patients with acute decompensated heart failure(ADHF).Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 179 patients diagnosed with ADHF at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from September 2021 to December 2022.Among them,126 ADHF patients from September 2021 to June 2022 were included in the training group,while the remaining 53 ADHF patients from July 2022 to December 2022 were included in the validation group.A column chart model was established based on univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis,and was further validated.Results Hypertension(OR 2.481,95%CI 1.102-5.589),blood urea nitrogen(OR 1.267,95%CI 1.082-1.485),albumin(OR 0.896,95%CI 0.826-0.973),left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF)(OR 0.926,95%CI 0.876-0.980),and left ventricular end-diastolic diameter(LVEDd)(OR 1.141,95%CI 1.050-1.239)were identified as independent risk factors for ADHF.Internal validations indicated satisfactory discriminative ability of the column chart,as evidenced by the area under the curve(AUC)values of 0.875(95%CI 0.816-0.934)for the training group and 0.839(95%CI 0.730-0.949)for the validation group,as well as calibration curve and clinical decision curve.Conclusions Hypertension,blood urea nitrogen,albumin,LVEF,and LVEDd are closely associated with the risk of adverse prognosis in ADHF patients.The column chart constructed based on these five feasible clinical variables can predict individualized risk of adverse prognosis in ADHF with good accuracy and discrimination,and will assist clinicians in making decisions and implementing clinically valuable intervention measures.
Keywords：Acute decompensated heart failure(ADHF)NomogramAlbuminBlood urea nitrogen
Publication Date：2023-12-10
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 982-989 )