Incidence trends of hand osteoarthritis in China from 1990 to 2021 and age-period-cohort analysis
LI Yue
LIN De-rong
LI Jie-xuan
FANG Jing-ya
XIE Xiao-hua
ZHANG Xiao-wen
RUAN Bo
YE Xiao-lin
XUE Ai-guo
Abstract：Objective To explore the latest data on the incidence and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)of hand osteoarthritis(HOA)in China from 1990 to 2021,along with the impact of age-period-cohort factors.Methods Public modeling data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021)were utilized.The joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the changing trends in the incidence of HOA in China.Additionally,Stata 17.0 software was used to examine the hand bones and joints of the Chinese population,focusing on the age-period-cohort model and the effects of inflammation.Results From 1990 to 2021,the standardized incidence rate and DALY rate of hand osteoarthritis in China's general population,encompassing both men and women,exhibited a fluctuating upward trend.The average annual percentage changes in the incidence rates were 1.160%for men,0.983%for women,and 1.351%overall.Similarly,the average annual percentage changes in the DALY rates were 0.686%for men,0.576%for women,and 0.711%overall,indicating a more pronounced increase in both incidence and DALY rates among women.Furthermore,the age-period-cohort model analysis revealed that the risk of developing hand osteoarthritis,as measured by incidence and DALY rates,had increased in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2021.This risk escalated with advancing age and exhibited an upward trend over time,which was associated with earlier birth cohorts.Conclusions The incidence and DALY rate of hand osteoarthritis in the Chinese population have generally exhibited an upward trend from 1990 to 2021.Older individuals,particularly those in later stages of life and at the forefront of the birth cohort,experience a greater disease burden associating with hand osteoarthritis.This finding underscores the necessity for appropriate interventions.Implementing control and preventive measures to mitigate modifiable risk factors is essential to alleviate the current and future burden of hand osteoarthritis in China.
Keywords：Hand osteoarthritisIncidenceDisease burdenAge-period-cohort model
Publication Date：2025-08-19
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 721-728 )