Risk Assessment and Response Strategies for Malaria Retransmission in Yunnan Province Under Flood Disaster Scenarios

Lin Zurui; Zhou Yaowu; Shao Zongti; Xia Zhigui

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-568X.2026.01.0012

Abstract：OBJECTIVE Yunnan Province is an area prone to flood disasters.However,there is currently no relevant research report on the risk of malaria retransmission in this scenario.It aimed to assess the risk of malaria retransmission in Yunnan Province under flood disaster scenarios,and put forward targeted countermeasures and suggestions to scientifically guide the local work of preventing malaria retransmission.METHODS Collect data such as malaria epidemic data,vector surveillance data in Yunnan Province from 2022 to 2024,and national technical plans for preventing malaria re-transmission,etc.,to construct a database.For quantitative data indicators,after averaging according to the county population,they are equally spaced and divided into 5 categories.For qualitative data,different grade values are assigned with reference to the literature.Comprehensively calculate the malaria retransmission risk index,and combine with the actual situation to comprehensively assess and delineate the risk stratification.RESULTS Under the flood disaster scenario,the malaria retransmission risk index in Yunnan Province ranges from 1 to 100,with an average value of 11.55.Through optimizing the stratification standard,among the 129 counties(cities,districts)in Yunnan Province,there are 4 counties with extremely high malaria retransmission risk,6 counties with high risk,13 counties with medium risk,and 106 counties with low risk.CONCLUSION Yunnan Province is a key region in China for preventing malaria retransmission.Scientific prevention and control under flood disasters is of vital importance.Timely early warnings must be given according to different risk stratifications,the sensitivity of surveillance should be improved,and targeted prevention and control measures should be taken according to local conditions to prevent malaria retransmission and continuously consolidate the achievements of malaria elimination.