Trends in the Incidence of Depressive Disorders Among the Elderly of China from 1992 to 2021

Guo Yongmei; Shao Haixia; Zhou Shengyun

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-568X.2025.10.0017

Abstract：OBJECTIVE To analyze the long-term trends in the incidence of depression among the elderly in China from 1992 to 2021 and provide scientific recommendations for prevention and control.METHODS Data on the burden of depression among the elderly aged 60～95 in China from 1992 to 2021 were obtained from Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021.The age-standardized incidence rate was calculated to assess its trends.An age-period-cohort(APC)model was used to evaluate the effects of age,period,and cohort,and a decomposition analysis was conducted to identify the primary driving factors of incidence changes.RESULTS From 1992 to 2021,both the number of depression cases and the age-standardized incidence rate among the elderly exhibited an overall upward trend,with a higher burden observed in elderly women than in elderly men.The APC model analysis showed that the incidence of depression increased with age,rising from 4 460.81/105 in the 60～64 age group to 7 139.92/105 in the 90～94 age group.Among elderly men,the incidence increased from 3 417.25/105 to 5 068.81/105,while among elderly women,it rose from 5 536.47/105 to 7 696.90/105.Additionally,the incidence risk increased over time,with later birth cohorts exhibiting a higher risk.Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth was the primary driving factor for the increase in depression cases among the elderly.CONCLUSION Targeted mental health interventions should be strengthened for the elderly,taking into account demographic trends to optimize prevention and control strategies.Special attention should be given to high-risk elderly women to reduce the burden of depression in this population.