Analysis of Tuberculosis Epidemiological Characteristics and Trend Prediction in Menghai County from 2019 to 2023
Zhang Fengcheng
Gu Zhiyuan
Chen Jin'o
Zhao Shigui
Shen Zhiqian
Abstract：OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis(TB)in Menghai County from 2019 to 2023 and provide a scientific basis for TB prevention and control in border areas.METHODS TB case reports from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System were extracted for Menghai County from 2019 to 2023 based on the date of onset and current residence.The epidemiological characteristics were analyzed,and the optimal model was established to predict TB incidence.RESULTS The reported TB incidence in Menghai County showed a fluctuating downward trend(x2=32.474,P＜0.01),with a total of 1 857 cases and an average annual incidence of 105.92/105.There was no significant spatial correlation between the townships(x2=32.474,P＜0.01),but higher incidences were reported in Mengman(187.83/105),Daluo(135.00/105),and Xiding(127.74/105)(P＜0.05).Males accounted for 1 320 cases(71.08％)and females for 537 cases(28.92％),with a male-to-female ratio of 2.46∶1,and the difference was statistically significant(x2=270.143,P＜0.01).All age groups were affected,with the highest incidence in the 45～49 age group(11.75/105)and the lowest in children under 5 years old(0.11/105),with a significant difference between age groups(x2=52.738,P＜0.01).By occupation,farmers accounted for the majority(1 484 cases,79.91％),followed by detainees(94 cases,5.06％)and students(73 cases,3.93％).The ARIMA model predictions showed that the incidence of TB in 2024 still showed a fluctuating downward trend,with cases reported throughout the year and no obvious seasonal peaks.CONCLUSION The incidence of TB in border townships of Menghai County is significantly higher than inland areas,which may be related to cross-border population movement and limited medical resources in border areas.Compared with the inland townships,the incidence rates were higher in Menghai and Daluo townships,suggesting that cross-border transmission may be an important factor.In addition,the higher incidence rates among males and young adults may be related to frequent social activities and a lack of hygiene awareness.It is consistent with the results of related studies at home and abroad and further confirms that the border area is a key area for tuberculosis prevention and control.
Keywords：menghai countytuberculosisprevalence characteristicsARIMAborder area
Publication Date：2025-05-10
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 58-62 )