Epidemiological Characteristics and Prediction of Hepatitis E in Wenling

Ye Yao; Zhang Jianli; Zhang Ningjie

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-568X.2025.04.0014

Abstract：OBJECTIVE To analyze the infection status of viral hepatitis E in Wenling from 2008 to 2023,to provide reference for the prevention of hepatitis E in Wenling.METHODS Select hepatitis E cases reported in Wenling from the infectious disease report information management system from 2008 to 2023.The date of hepatitis epidemic from 2008 to 2023 were analyzed by descriptive epidemiology and establish Autoregressive integrated moving average model;stratified random sampling of blood samples from healthy people in 16 townships,serum antibodies to hepatitis E virus IgG(HEV-IgG)were detected by ELISA method,and the results were analyzed by descriptive epidemiology.RESULTS 1 082 cases of liver disease E were reported in Wenling from 2008 to 2023.The average annual reported incidence was 5.11/105,the incidence of hepatitis E increased first and then decreased,the peak incidence was in the first quarter and the third quarter,the most reported cases of hepatitis E occurred in 2～3 months(209 cases,19.3%),the case ratio of male to female was 1.88∶1,the age group of 50～59 years had the most cases.The anti-HEV IgG positivity rate of the healthy population was 31.81%(standardized positivity rate:34.39%).The positivity rate increased with age.The highest percentage of positivity were farmers(41.55%).The rate of hepatitis E infection was higher in the region in towns by the sea than in towns not by the sea.The predicted monthly incidence rate of hepatitis E in Wenling from January to December in 2024 was 0.63/105～1.12/105.CONCLUSION The infection rate of Hepatitis E in the healthy population far exceeds incidence as reported by the infectious disease surveillance system,with significant differences in season,gender,age,occupation,and region.