Epidemiological Characteristics and Prediction Analysis of Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease in Longgang District of Shenzhen from 2016 to 2020
Ye Jinchao
Huang Zhifeng
Abstract：OBJECTIVE To understand the epidemiological characteristics and changes in Hand,Foot,and Mouth Disease(HFMD)in the Longgang District of Shenzhen.Based on these findings,it aims to propose scientifically prevention and control strategies.METHODS Base on the data of HFMD cases in Longgang District of Shenzhen from 2016 to 2020,the incidence rate,Three spatial distributions were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological analysis.RESULTS The reported incidence rates of HFMD in Longgang District of Shenzhen fluctuated from 2016 to 2020,with an average annual incidence rate of 349.96/105.The cases were observed throughout the year,with peak incidences occurring from May to July and from September to November.The susceptible population,in terms of distribution,primarily consisted of children under 5 years old who were attending preschool or scattered children of community,and the reported incidence rates of boys was higher than that of girls.The ARIMA model demonstrated that the reported incidence numbers from January to December in 2019 all fell within the 95%confidence interval of the prediction model,with smaller deviation in January and February.CONCLUSION The prevention and control of HFMD should focus on spring and autumn in Longgang District.Establish a home-school joint prevention mechanism,Health education should be strengthened,especially for children under 5 years old,and the knowledge of HFMD prevention and control should be popularized.The ARIMA model has a relatively accurate prediction performance in the short term.
Keywords：handfoot and mouth diseaseepidemiological characteristicsprevention and control strategiespredictive analysis
Publication Date：2025-02-09
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 63-66 )