Prediction of Tuberculosis Incidence Trend in Nanchang Based on ARIMA Model
Zhou Kun
Zhu Xiaolin
Xiong Wenyan
Fu Jun
Yang Shu
Abstract：OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemic trend characteristics of tuberculosis in Nanchang,and explore the application of Auto regressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMA)to analyze and predict the epidemic trend characteristics of tuberculosis in Nanchang.It provides scientific basis for further developing comprehensive prevention and control strategy of tuberculosis in Nanchang.METHODS Data of tuberculosis incidence reported in Nanchang city from January 1st,2012 to December 31st,2022 were obtained through the infectious disease surveillance system of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.The autoregressive moving average model based on tuberculosis incidence in Nanchang was constructed by using SPSS 25.0 software.The epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Nanchang was analyzed and predicted.RESULTS From 2012 to 2022,a total of 44 049 new cases of tuberculosis were reported in Nanchang,showing a trend of decreasing year by year.The optimal prediction model was determined as ARIMA(0,1,4)(0,1,2)12,and the incidence of tuberculosis from January to August 2023 was predicted and compared with the actual value,the results showed that the prediction was good.CONCLUSION ARIMA can be used as a tool for short-term prediction of tuberculosis epidemic at the grass-roots level.Nanchang should strengthen the continuous monitoring of tuberculosis.
Keywords：auto regressive integrated moving average modelpulmonary tuberculosisprediction
Publication Date：2024-08-10
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：3( 59-61 )