Comparison of Vaccine Demand Forecasting Methods and Management Models for Immunization Programs in China and United States

Wang Yue; Qiao Fangyuan; Li Wen; Wu Bo; Liu Baohua; Fu Zhaowei

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-568X.2024.06.0019

Abstract：Vaccination is the most economical,effective,and convenient means for preventing and controlling infectious diseases.With the continuous advancement of China's immunization program,the types and demands of vaccines are increasing,but there are also problems such as uneven distribution,tight supply,or surplus supply.Accurate prediction of vaccine use can ensure reasonable supply and provide basic support for maintaining people's health and building immune barriers in the population.In the early stage,the demand for vaccine in China is roughly estimated based on historical experience,and in the later stage,the demand is estimated by formula.However,due to the dispersion of recruiters,seasonal changes or disease outbreaks,sometimes it could not meet the real demand for vaccine use.The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)predicts the demand of different populations according to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Implementation in the United States.Thanks to the information management carried out earlier,the population data and vaccine data are more detailed and perfect,which makes the demand prediction easy to carry out and accurate.As the country that carried out related exploration and practice earlier in the world,the United States adopts the iteration of management model to balance the instability of demand forecast,which is a relatively mature system in the world at present and worthy of reference for our country.To compare the methods and management models of vaccine demand prediction between China and United States,and to provide reference for the future development of China based on relevant experiences.