Trend and Predictive Analysis of Cardiacvascular Diseases among Residents in Liangzhou District of Wuwei from 2014 to 2022

Shi Fuli; Li Xiaochun; Li Yuxia; Shen Lili; Shen Xiping

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-568X.2024.02.0011

Abstract：OBJECTIVE To understand the death trend of CDVs in Liangzhou district from 2014 to 2022,and to predict and ana-lyze the trend,so as to provide a theoretical basis for formulating the overall prevention and control strategy of CDVs in Liangzhou District.METHODS The data were collected by the Liangzhou district from 2014 to 2022 population death information registration management system platform,and the eannual percent of changes(APC)and the average annual percentage change(AAPC)of CDVs mortality was analyzed by using the Joinpoint regression model.The crude CDVs mortality rate of residents in Liangzhou district from 2014 to 2022 was fitted by polynomial curve and predicted.RESULTS The overall mortality rate of CDVs showed an upward trend from 2014 to 2022,with an average annual increase of 4.49％(AAPC=4.49％,P＜0.05).The average crude mortality rate of CDVs was 248.32/105,and the standardized mortality rate was 411.32/105.The average crude mortality rate and standardized mortali-ty rate of males are higher than those of females(P＜0.05).The mortality rates of hypertensive heart disease,ischemic heart disease,other types of heart disease,and other circulatory system diseases have been increasing year by year,with an average annual in-crease of 4.00％,5.50％,7.94％,and 4.01％,respectively(P＜0.05).Using polynomial curves to predict mortality rates of 378.00/105 and 429.80/105 from 2023 to 2024,respectively.CONCLUSION The mortality rate of CDVs in Liangzhou district is increasing year by year,mainly due to pulmonary heart disease and ischemic heart disease.The mortality rate of the elderly is early and high.Effec-tive preventive measures should be taken,and attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of CDVs in the elderly.