Trend Analysis and ROC Curve Prediction of Metabolic Syndrome among People Aged 60 and above in the Suburbs of Shanghai

Chen Lei; Yu Ting

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-568X.2024.02.0008

Abstract：OBJECTIVE Analyze the change trend of metabolic syndrome in the elderly,and compare the evaluation effect of blood glucose and body mass index on metabolic syndrome.METHODS A survey was conducted among 19 576 elderly residents aged 60 and above who participated in physical examination in the community of Jinshan High-tech Zone in Shanghai in the past year.The diagnosis of metabolic syndrome is based on the diagnostic criteria of the diabetes Branch of the Chinese Medical Associa-tion.SPSS24.0 statistical software draws the working characteristic(ROC)curve of subjects with metabolic syndrome and calculates the area under the curve(AUC).RESULTS The highest proportion of metabolic syndrome was 24.8％in the age group of 70～74 years old,and the lowest proportion was 17.8％in the age group of≥80 years old.The age group with the highest proportion of 1～4 items accompanied by group scores was 65～69 years old.The cutoff points of glucose and body mass index were 6.05mmol/L and 25.0kg/m2,respectively,and the area under the ROC curve was 0.720 and 0.824,respectively.The cutoff points of female glucose and body mass index were 5.92 mmol/L and 25.0 kg/m2 respectively,and the area under the ROC curve was 0.714 and 0.798 respec-tively.CONCLUSION BMI and fasting blood glucose are important variables to predict metabolic syndrome in elderly residents in the community.In the community,we should pay attention to the predictive value of BMI and fasting blood glucose in evaluating the metabolic syndrome of community residents.