Joinpoint Regression Model Analysis on Epidemiological Secular Trends in Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Nantong Rudong Country from 2000 to 2021
Zhang Aihong
Xu Hong
Sun Yanli
Zhou Xiaoyun
Abstract：OBJECTIVE The incidence trend of type 2 diabetes in Rudong County was analyzed to provide scientific basis for the government to formulate diabetes prevention and control strategy.METHODS New cases of type 2 diabetes were collected from the regional health information platform and Hospital Information System(HIS)in Rudong County from 2000 to 2021.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change characteristics of the incidence of type 2 diabetes,and the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated.To predict and verify the level of diabetes incidence in 2022.RESULTS From 2000 to 2021,the average crude incidence of type 2 diabetes in Rudong County was 259.75/105 and the standardized incidence showed an overall upward trend,from 51.27/105 to 139.83/105 with an average annual percentage change(AAPC)of 7.76%.The year of 2012 was the change node,the annual change percentage(APC)from 2000 to 2012 was 18.67%,and the incidence of type 2 diabetes increased rapidly.The APC from 2012 to 2021 was-5.24%,and the incidence rate decreased slow-ly.The crude incidence of male was 198.07/105 and the standardized rate was 118.73/105 while the crude incidence of female was 318.89/105 and the standardized rate was 197.03/105.The incidence of female was higher than that of male,and the difference was statistically significant(Z=4.41,P＜0.05).The incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus fluctuated in the 45～74 years old population.CONCLUSION From 2000 to 2021,the incidence of type 2 diabetes in Rudong county increased first and then decreased slowly.Dia-betes is still the main chronic disease implemented by comprehensive prevention and control strategy in Rudong county,and women and people aged 45 to 74 are the key prevention and control objects of type 2 diabetes in this region.
Keywords：type 2 diabetes mellitusincidence rateJoinpoint regression modeltrends analysis
Publication Date：2024-01-10
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 46-49 )