Analysis of prognostic risk factors and construction of a prediction model for traumatic upper limb nerve injuries
LI Jiaqi
ZHANG Yuheng
ZHOU Haowei
LI Xueyong
Abstract：Objective To comprehensively evaluate the long-term efficacy and risk factors affecting prognosis of traumatic upper limb nerve injuries(TULNI),and then construct a model that can predict the long-term prognosis of patients based on this and verify its performance.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the data of TULNI patients who were hospitalized in the Department of Burns and Plastic Surgery,Tangdu Hospital,Air Force Medical University from January 2017 to December 2022.Long-term prognosis of patients was assessed using the modified British Medical Research Council scale and the short form douleur neuropathique 4.Patients were randomly divided into training set and validation set in a 7∶3 ratio.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for poor postoperative recovery(PPR)in TULNI patients.Based on the screened risk factors,a prediction model was constructed and a nomogram was drawn.Finally,the model underwent rigorous validation for discrimination,calibration,and clinical utility.Results A total of 372 TULNI patients were included(226 in good postoperative recovery group and 146 in PPR group).Multivariate analysis identified age,smoking status,injured nerve,injury site,and denervation time as risk factors for the occurrence of PPR(P＜0.05).The model demonstrated high accuracy in predicting the occurrence of PPR and both training set and validation set exhibited robust discrimination,calibration and significant clinical utility.Conclusion Age,smoking status,injured nerve,injury site,and denervation time may be risk factors affecting the prognosis of TULNI.The prediction model constructed based on these factors demonstrates robust performance,facilitating early identification of high-risk patients and providing valuable assistance for improving patient prognosis.
Keywords：peripheral nerve injuriesupper extremityrecovery of functionneuralgiarisk factorsnomogramsretrospective studiesnerve regeneration
Publication Date：2025-08-31
Online Publishing Date：2026-08-26(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 1029-1036 )