Construction of a nomogram prediction model for long-term prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after surgery based on quantitative parameters of contrast-enhanced ultrasound

ZHANG Jiao; GUO Liyan; YAO Qiuju; WEN Jiangtao

doi:10.20258/j.cnki.1006-9011.2025.08.020

Abstract：Objective This study aims to construct a Nomogram prediction model for long-term prognosis of patients with he-patocellular carcinoma(HCC)based on quantitative parameters of contrast-enhanced ultrasound.Methods 212 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma were selected,all of whom underwent surgical treatment and were followed up for 5 years after surgery.Patients were divided into a recurrence group(n=94)and a non recurrence group(n=118)based on whether they experienced postoperative recurrence.The differences in clinical characteristics between the patients of the two groups were analyzed,and the logistics regression model was used to analyze the risk factors for postoperative recurrence.The role of Nomogram prediction model in long-term postoperative prognosis based on relevant risk factors was established and validated.Results There were significant statistical differences between the two groups in tumor maximum diameter,peak time,ascites,vascular invasion,and portal vein tumor thrombus(P<0.05).Ascites,vascular invasion,portal vein tumor thrombus,peak time<28.5 s and tumor maximum diameter>4.23 cm were risk factors for recurrence in patients with HCC after surgical resection(P<0.05).The data set was randomly divided into a training set and a verification set,with a sample size of 148 in the training set and 64 in the verifi-cation set.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)curve of the training set was 0.913(95%CI:0.867-0.959),and AUC of the validation set was 0.952(95%CI:0.904-1.000).In the validation set,the model was subjected to the Hosmer Show Goodness of Fit Test(χ2=5.309,P=0.724),indicating that the model had a good reliability.Conclusion This model has high value in predicting the recurrence of HCC after surgical resection,which is helpful for clinicians to judge the prognosis of patients.