Establishment of a prediction model of poor prognosis in patients with acute cerebral infarction based on carotid dop-pler ultrasound combined with clinical characteristics and pan-immune inflammation value
ZHANG Xufeng
WANG Yunqin
ZHAO Huagen
LI Yonggang
CHEN Zhihui
ZHONG Zhisong
Abstract：Objective To develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting poor prognosis in patients with acute cere-bral infarction(ACI)by integrating carotid Doppler ultrasound parameters,clinical characteristics,and pan-immune-inflammation value(PIV).Methods In this study,120 ACI patients were included and were divided into two groups:a poor prognosis group in which the modified Rankin Scale(mRS)was>2(n=60)and a good prognosis group(n=60,mRS≤2).Clini-cal data were collected,and carotid Doppler ultrasound was performed to measure peak systolic velocity(PSV),end-diastolic ve-locity(EDV),resistance index(RI),and pulsatility index(PI).Fasting venous blood was analyzed to calculate PIV based on lymphocyte,neutrophil,platelet,and monocyte counts.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for poor prognosis and to construct a predictive nomogram model.Model performance was evalu-ated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)and calibration plots.Results Significant differ-ences were observed between groups in age,diabetes history,smoking status,baseline NIHSS score,PSV,EDV,RI,PI,and PIV(P<0.05).Multivariate analysis identified advanced age,diabetes,high NIHSS score,reduced PSV,reduced EDV,el-evated RI,decreased PI,and elevated PIV as independent predictors of poor prognosis(P<0.05).The nomogram demon-strated excellent discrimination(AUC=0.824,95%CI:0.737-0.896)and calibration,with mean absolute error of 0.017.Conclusion The nomogram incorporating carotid hemodynamics,clinical features,and PIV provides reliable prognostic strati-fication for ACI patients,with potential clinical utility for early risk assessment.
Keywords：Acute cerebral infarctionUltrasound examinationPan-immune inflammatory value
Publication Date：2025-08-30
Online Publishing Date：2025-09-28(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 16-20 )