The ROC analysis of PET/CT mathematical prediction model in diagnosis of solitary pulmonary nodule

LIN Jie; ZHENG Xiang-wu; YIN Wei-wei; TANG Kun; LIN Xin-shi; CHEN Yang-zong; DAI Yun-fei; ZHAO Liang

Abstract：Objective To evaluate the value of PET/CT mathematical prediction model in diagnosis of solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN ) ,using receiver operating characteristic (ROC ) curves analysis .Methods From September 2011 to June 2013 ,186 patients who were confirmed with SPN and performed with PET /CT were retrospectively analysed in this stud‐y .The logistic mathematical prediction model was established by univariate analysis and multivariate analysis ,using malig‐nant or benign result as dependent variable and gender ,age ,nodule size ,density ,location ,boundary ,ground glass opaci‐ty ,lobulation ,vascular convergence ,retraction of pleural ,speculation ,calcification ,vacuole ,cavity as independent varia‐ble .The sensitivity ,specificity ,accuracy ,positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the mathematical mod‐el in diagnosis of SPN were calculated .The ROC curve was depicted and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the mathematical model was calculated .Results The mathematical prediction model established by logistic regression analysis was p=ex/(1+ ex ) ,x=‐8 .111+0 .091 × age+1 .351 × lobulation+3 .565 × vascular convergence+2 .153 × retraction of pleural+0 .447 × SUVmax .The sensitivity ,specificity ,accuracy ,positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the model for prediction of SPN were 87 .8% ,81 .0% ,85 .5% ,90 .0% and 77 .3% respectively .The AUC of mathemati‐cal model was 0 .927 ± 0 .019 .Conclusion The value of PET/CT mathematical prediction model in diagnosis of SPN is high and not affected by subjective factors .Therefore ,it is a recommended diagnostic method in clinical practice .