Analysis of the disease burden and future trends of appendicitis in China from 1990 to 2021

ZHOU Fan; ZHAO Gang; LYU Xijun

doi:10.12173/j.issn.1004-5511.202501146

Abstract：Objective To analyze the disease burden of appendicitis in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the future trends.Methods The incidence,mortality,disability-adjusted life-years(DALY)and corresponding age-standardized rates of appendicitis in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study database.The annual percentage change and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated using Joinpoint software to analyze the changing trend of the disease burden of appendicitis in China from 1990 to 2021.A Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was constructed to predict the changes in the disease burden of appendicitis in China from 2022 to 2040.Results The age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),and age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)of appendicitis in China in 2021 were 311.67/100 000,0.09/100 000,and 5.81/per 100 000 person years,respectively.From 1990 to 2021,the ASIR[AAPC=0.75％,95％CI(0.71％,0.80％)]for appendicitis in China showed an increasing trend,while the ASMR[AAPC=-5.32％,95％CI(-5.38％,-5.26％)]and ASDR[AAPC=-3.51％,95％CI(-3.55％,-3.48％)]both showed a decreasing trend.Women had a higher incidence rate than men,but lower mortality and DALY rates.The incidence rate of appendicitis in China initially increased and then decreased with age,with the peak age of onset always between 15～24 years.Deaths were primarily among the elderly,with the peak age of death being over 85 years.The peak age of the DALY rate of appendicitis in China was concentrated between the ages of 90 and 94.A BAPC model predicted that the ASIR of appendicitis in China would increase from 2022 to 2040,while the ASMR and ASDR showed a decrease trend.Conclusion From 1990 to 2021,the ASIR of appendicitis in China increased,while the ASMR and ASDR decreased,and the overall disease burden showed a slow decline in the future.Currently,efforts should be made to strengthen prevention and treatment efforts among the elderly,vigorously carry out scientific education,and promote healthy lifestyles and dietary patterns to further reduce the disease burden of appendicitis.