Analysis and trend prediction of the disease burden of atrial fibrillation and flutter in China from 1990 to 2021
HUO Wenxia
MA Yan
WU Ruikai
HAN Zhengfeng
Abstract：Objective To analyze the disease burden and trend prediction of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter(AF/AFL)in China from 1990 to 2021,and to provide reference for disease prevention and treatment.Methods Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Database,Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trend of AF/AFL disease burden,age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age,period,and birth queue effects of AF/AFL,and autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was used to predict the trend of AF/AFL disease burden from 2022 to 2031.Results In 2021,the number of new cases of AF/AFL in China was 916,100,with a total of 10.7757 million patients and a disability-adjusted life years(DALY)of 1.6531 million person years.The death toll was 64,700,an increase of 198.89％,237.24％,225.03％,and 294.51％compared to 1990.Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)[AAPC=0.155％,95％CI(0.051％,0.260％)]and age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR)[AAPC=0.433％,95％CI(0.324％,0.543％)]of AF/AFL from 1990 to 2021 showed an upward trend,and the age-standardized mortality rate[AAPC=-0.454％,95％CI(-0.783％,-0.124％)]of AF/AFL showed a downward trend.The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence risk,disease risk,DALY risk,and mortality risk of AF/AFL increase with age,while the incidence and disease risks increase with time,and the mortality risk decreases over time.The cohort effect shows that people born in recent years have an increased risk of developing the disease,the risk of illness,and the risk of DALY.The ARIMA model predicted that the ASIR and ASPR of AF/AFL in China will increase in the next 10 years.Conclusion From 1990 to 2021,the ASIR and ASPR of AF/AFL in China shows an increasing trend.The risk of incidence,morbidity,and DALY increases with age,and the incidence tends to be younger.The ASIR and ASPR of AF/AFL are likely to be on the rise over the next 10 years.
Keywords：Atrial fibrillation and flutterAge-period-cohort modelPredictionGlobal disease burdenAutoregressive integrated moving average model
Publication Date：2025-08-25
Online Publishing Date：2025-09-18(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：11( 892-902 )