Application of ARIMA Model in Forecast of the Incidence of Lung Cancer
Abstract：Objective To investigate the feasibility of applying time series autoregressive integrated moving aver﹣age(ARIMA)model in predicting the incidence of lung cancer.Methods Collecting the incidence statistical data from 2007 to 2012 in Jiangan District.SPSS17.0 was used to construct the ARIMA model to predict the monthly inci﹣dence of lung cancer in 2013.The incidence from ARIMA model was compared with actual incidence so as to evaluate the model＇s validity.Results ARIMA(3,1,0)model could better fit and predict the value of monthly incidence of lung cancer.All real values were within 95%confidence intervals of fitted values and predicted values.Conclusion ARIMA model can well simulate the trend of lung cancer incidence in time series,which is a short-term prediction model with high accuracy.
Keywords：Time series analysisARIMA modelPredictionLung cancerMorbidity
Publication Date：2019-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 414-417 )