Research on the prognostic risk nomogram model of autogenous tooth transplantation for repairing tooth loss based on multiple factor analysis

ZHAO Yu-ting; ZHANG Peng; TAN Dan; QI Jia-hui; SHEN Yan; YUAN Meng-zhen

doi:10.15956/j.cnki.chin.j.conserv.dent.2025.06.003

Abstract：AIM:To identify risk factors associated with poor prognosis following autogenous tooth transplantation for tooth loss repair and to develop a predictive nomogram model.METHODS:Based on available data,a retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 163 patients(180 transplanted teeth)with tooth loss who received autogenous tooth transplantation for restoration in our hospital.The study was conducted from September 2018 to September 2021 and followed up for 36 months to evaluate the prognosis of the transplanted teeth.In the univariate analysis,the categorical variables were analyzed using the chi square test,and age groups were divided into≤35 years and＞35 years;Multivariate logistic regression analysis of factors affecting poor prognosis after autogenous tooth transplantation restoration;The variables included in the model are all categorical variables;Considering the limitation of the number of events(EPV=4),the model does not include interaction terms;Establish and validate a column chart model for predicting poor prognosis after autogenous tooth transplantation repair using R software package and rms software package.RESULTS:Of 180 transplanted teeth,160 survived,with a survival rate of 88.89%,while 20 teeth failed(failure rate:11.11%).Univariate analysis identified significant differences in age,smoking status,recipient site alveolar bone height i,donor tooth extraoral time,and initial stability between the survival group and failure group(P＜0.05).Multivariate l logistic regression analysis confirmed all five variables as independent predictors of poor prognosis(OR＞1,P＜0.05).The nomogram showed strong predictive performance,with a C-index of 0.885.ROC analysis yielded an AUC of 0.855(95%CI:0.813-0.909,P＜0.001),with a sensitivity of 78%,specificity of 90.25%,and a Youden index of 0.683.CONCLUSION:Age,smoking status,donor tooth departure time,alveolar bone height at the recipient area,and initial stability are important influencing factors of poor prognosis in patients with missing teeth repaired by autogenous grafts,and the established nomogram demonstrates excellent predictive ability and may aid clinicians in individualized risk assessment and treatment planning.