The predictive value of serum GDF-15 and S100A12 for upper gastrointestinal bleeding in elderly patients with peptic ulcers
Jin Siying
Liang Chunyang
Ma Xiaomin
Han Chunxiang
Zhang Qian
Abstract：Objective To explore the predictive value of serum growth differentiation factor-15(GDF-15)and S100 calcium binding protein A12(S100A12)for upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB)in elderly patients with peptic ulcer(PU).Methods A total of 112 patients with PU admitted to the Geriatric Department of Nanjing Tongren Hospital from March 2023 to March 2025 were selected as the PU group.Based on whether they had concomitant upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB),they were divided into a concomitant subgroup and a non-concomitant subgroup.In addition,60 healthy individuals who underwent physical examinations were selected as the healthy control group.ELISA assay for serum GDF-15 and S100A12 levels.Comparison of serum GDF-15 and S100A12 levels between groups.Multifactorial Logistic regression analysis of factors influencing the incidence of UGIB in patients with PU.Relative risk analysis of serum GDF-15 and S100A12 levels on the incidence of UGIB in patients with PU.Plotting ROC curve to analyze the predictive value of serum GDF-15 and S100A12 levels for UGIB in patients with PU.Results Serum GDF-15 and S100A12 levels were higher in the PU group than in the healthy control group(t/P=22.258/＜0.001,16.540/＜0.001).Hemoglobin levels were significantly lower in the concurrent subgroup than in the non-concurrent subgroup,while serum GDF-15 and S100A12 levels were significantly higher in the concurrent subgroup than in the non-concurrent subgroup(t/P=9.274/＜0.001,6.110/＜0.001,5.473/＜0.001).Ele-vated serum GDF-15 levels[OR(95％CI)=6.487(3.345-12.582)]and high S100A12 levels[OR(95％CI)=7.304(4.252-12.546)]are risk factors for UGIB in PU patients,while high hemoglobin levels[OR(95％CI)=0.415(0.272-0.632)]are protective factors for UGIB in PU patients.Serum GDF-15,Patients with high levels of serum GDF-15 and S100A12 who de-veloped UGIB had a 2.734-fold(95％CI:1.514-4.936)and 4.162-fold(95％CI:2.102-8.241)higher risk of developing UGIB compared to patients with low levels of serum GDF-15 and S100A12 who developed UGIB(P＜0.001 for both).The AUC values for predicting UGIB in PU patients using serum GDF-15,S100A12,and the combination of both were 0.816,0.811,and 0.915,respectively.The combination of both was superior to each individually in predicting UGIB in PU patients(Z=3.220,2.490;P=0.001,0.013).Conclusion Serum GDF-15 and S100A12 are clearly elevated in patients with PU compli-cated with UGIB,and the combination of serum GDF-15 and S100A12 has high value in predicting PU complicated with UGIB.
Keywords：Peptic ulcerUpper gastrointestinal bleedingGrowth differentiation factor-15S100 calcium binding protein A12Predictive valueElderly
Publication Date：2026-01-18
Online Publishing Date：2026-02-04(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 60-64,76 )