Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for acute biliary pancreatitis complicated with pancreatic pseudocyst

Nuermaimaiti Maimaitituerxun; Aizizaimu Yusupu; Nuerhuji Maimaiti; Lutubula Taxifulati; Tian Yunping; Cao Yanlong

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6450.2025.11.011

Abstract：Objective To analyze the risk factors of acute biliary pancreatitis(ABP)complicated with pancreatic pseudocyst(PPC),and to construct a risk prediction model and verify it.Methods A total of 149 ABP patients admitted to the Department of General Surgery of the First People's Hospital of Kashi Prefecture from June 2022 to June 2024 were ret-rospectively selected as the modeling group.According to the occurrence of PPC,the patients were divided into PPC group and non-PPC group.The baseline data of the two groups were compared,and the risk factors were determined by binary Lo-gistic regression analysis,and the prediction model was constructed.At the same time,27 patients with ABP admitted from Ju-ly 2024 to December 2024 were selected as the validation group to verify and analyze the clinical application value of the pre-diction model.Results Of the 149 patients with ABP,30(20.13％)patients with PPC were included in the PPC group,and 119(79.87％)patients without PPC were included in the non-PPC group.The drinking history,diabetes history,seizure fre-quency,ABP severity and fasting blood glucose level in PPC group were significantly higher than those in non-PPC group(t/x2/P=6.256/0.012,4.070/0.044,10.883/＜0.001,10.227/0.001),while the serum albumin level was significantly lower than that in non-PPC group(t/P=3.347/0.001).Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that drinking history and the number of ABP episodes were independent risk factors for PPC in ABP patients[OR(95％CI)=10.957(1.740-69.038),4.127(1.540-11.065)],while high serum albumin was a protective factor for PPC[OR(95％CI)=0.372(0.176-0.812)].The area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of the modeling group was 0.804,and the area under the ROC curve of the vali-dation group was 0.912.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the performance of the model was close to the ideal predic-tive performance(x2=14.47,P=0.071).Conclusion Repeated episodes of ABP and alcohol abuse are independent risk fac-tors for PPC in patients with ABP,while higher serum albumin is a protective factor.The nomogram prediction model based on these factors has good prediction efficiency and can provide a quantitative tool for early clinical identification of high-risk patients.