Analysis on Climate Change Trend in Ngari Prefecture,Xizang from 1981 to 2024

Xiao Zhuojing; Danzeng Nima; Ciwang Dunzhu

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-3403.2025.11.007

Abstract：Based on meteorological data from the three long-sequence national benchmark climate stations(Shiqua-nhe,Gaize,and Pulan)in Ngari prefecture from 1981 to 2024,this study has comprehensively analyzed the trend in temperature and precipitation over the past 44 years using methods such as linear trend analysis,M-K(Mann-Kend-all)mutation test and cold-warm index.The results indicated a significant warming trend in the average annual tem-perature in Ngari prefecture,with an average rise of 0.51℃ per decade.A mutation point in the average annual tem-perature was identified between 1998 and 1999,but it was statistically insignificant.The average temperatures in all four seasons exhibited an increasing trend,with the most significant warming occurring in winter and autumn.One year was classified as exceptionally cold and one as exceptionally warm,while three years as colder.The average an-nual precipitation showed a weak increasing trend,with an average increase of 5.8 mm per decade,primarily ob-served in summer and autumn,and the increase rate in summer was far greater than that in autumn.A mutation point in the average annual precipitation occurred between 2005 and 2006,but it was statistically insignificant.Annual sunshine hours showed a decreasing trend,with the most significant decrease rate in summer.The average wind speed showed a decreasing trend,with the most pronounced decrease in spring.This study reveals a'warming and wetting'development trend in the climate in Ali prefecture from 1981 to 2024,characterized by significant tempera-ture rise and slight precipitation increase,particularly evident in summer.The research findings would provide refer-ence insight for understanding the climate response of the Tibetan Plateau and the construction of regional ecologi-cal security barriers.