Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for subsyndromal delirium in patients after brain glioma surgery

HAN Jingyun; SU Weiwei; CUI Yue; YAO Yao; JIN Yi

doi:10.12102/j.issn.2095-8668.2025.17.019

Abstract：Objective: To investigate the incidence of subdelerium syndrome in patients after brain glioma surgery, analyze the risk factors for subdelerium syndrome, and construct a risk prediction model. Methods: A convenience sample of 201 patients who underwent brain glioma surgery and were treated in the intensive care unit (ICU) of Tianjin Huanhu Hospital from December 2023 to September 2024 was selected. The patients were divided into two groups based on whether they developed subdelerium syndrome: the occurrence group (n=73) and the non-occurrence group (n=128). Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors, and a risk prediction model for subdelerium syndrome in patients after brain glioma surgery was constructed. The performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: Among the 201 patients after brain glioma surgery, 73 developed subdelerium syndrome, with an incidence rate of 36.3%. Logistic regression analysis showed that postoperative restraint, use of benzodiazepines during anesthesia, intraoperative blood loss, APACHE II score, and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) score were risk factors for subdelerium syndrome (P<0.05). Based on these risk factors, a risk prediction model was constructed, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.936 [95% CI (0.904, 0.968)]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed χ² = 4.111, P = 0.847, and the calibration curve approached the ideal curve. Conclusion: Postoperative restraint, use of benzodiazepines during anesthesia, intraoperative blood loss, APACHE II score, and PSQI score are risk factors for subdelerium syndrome. The constructed risk prediction model can provide reference for early identification and intervention of subdelerium syndrome in patients after brain glioma surgery.