Analysis of risk factors and construction and validation of a risk prediction model for lactation mastitis in primiparous women

XU Yan; LI Xiao

doi:10.12102/j.issn.2095-8668.2025.10.020

Abstract：Objective: To analyze the risk factors of breastfeeding period mastitis in primiparous women, construct a nomogram risk prediction model for breastfeeding period mastitis in primiparous women, and verify its predictive effect. Methods: A total of 155 primiparous women who received treatment for breastfeeding period mastitis in our hospital from March 2021 to January 2024 were selected as the case group, and another 155 primiparous women who gave birth in the same period but did not suffer from breast diseases were selected as the control group. The basic information, health status, and breastfeeding conditions of the two groups were compared. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for breastfeeding period mastitis, and a nomogram risk prediction model was constructed. Subsequently, the predictive effect of the model was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Results: Logistic regression analysis showed that accompanying anxiety and depressive emotions, family history of gynecological tumors, no medical staff massage of the breasts, supine breastfeeding, single breastfeeding duration ≥30 minutes, irregular cleaning of the nipples, nipple inversion, and milk accumulation were risk factors for breastfeeding period mastitis in primiparous women. The area under the ROC curve of the constructed prediction model was 0.708 [95% CI (0.643, 0.777)]; the Hosmer-Lemeshow test result showed χ² = 6.662, P = 0.467, indicating that the nomogram prediction model had high consistency between predicted and actual probabilities. Conclusion: The constructed nomogram risk prediction model for breastfeeding period mastitis in primiparous women can effectively predict the occurrence of breastfeeding period mastitis, which is helpful for carrying out targeted prevention work for this disease.